Narrative and Better Bets
One thing I love about Yobi (my job) is one of its core values: make smart bets. It’s one of those kinda reductive statements that requires a lot of context to be practically instructive, but fulfills its role in creating rhetorical focus. Everything we do is a bet. bets have risks, upsides, and downsides. Different bets interact and inform future bets. Given your portfolio of bets, what is your expected distribution of outcomes? Etc. These aren’t the capped ludic bets of the casino, where all probabilities are known and there are no inter-bet interactions. They are the bets of the natural world, where bets build on each other and can lead to compounding results. Some bets have catastrophic downside (mostly bad bets), and some have incredible upside (some good bets). Narrative has a critical role in bet making: most good options are hidden to almost everyone - imagine the startup opportunity, which relies on key recent tech advancements, changes in market dynamics, a coalescing of talent, a unique framing of the problem, etc. Predicting success (binary or degree) for this venture relies on a lot of information that simply hasn’t happened yet. ...